Here is a plot showing the shifts of the numbers voting for D/R candidates for POTUS in Urbana, from elections 2020 (i.e., Biden vs. Trump) to 2024 (Harris vs. Trump).
Each arrow shows the change of the number of votes for the corresponding precinct in Urbana (that is, the precincts are Cunningham 01 through Cunningham 23). The data are taken from the County clerk web site.
And here’s the map of precincts:
What can we make of these results:
- Precinct 1: lower income area, essentially stable.
- Precinct 2: student housing, a lot of them international: few voters.
- Precincts 3,4,5 – students in their dorms. Just a surge in number of voters, not affecting the mix. This was perfectly predictable: the Fall semester of 2020 was mostly online; this year, the students were on campus.
- Only three non-dorm precincts (14, 15 and 23, all in South Urbana) saw slight increase of the Democratic vote.
- In the remaining precincts, including heavily liberal State streets area, Democrats were sitting out the general elections of 2024. Trump votes in 2024 fluctuated around their 2020 numbers.